Prediction of the Radiation Measurements in Real Time at Aircraft Flight Altitudes

Sadia Assad¹, Adam Skorek¹, Fidele Moupfouma¹, and Mohamed Al Skarkawy²

1. University of Quebec at Trois Rivières, Canada

2. Bombardier Aviation, Canada

Abstract: Commercial aviation is constantly evolving and perpetually changing. New aircraft are using increased level of electrical power for systems and now for propulsion as well. In addition, the components of electronic systems are increasingly miniaturized, which contributes to reducing their volumes. This miniaturization makes these components more susceptible. Today, there are no dedicated requirements, and no standardized means of compliance for assessing the effects of cosmic radiations to the onboard systems. That is why aircraft manufacturers are asked to contribute to the collection of in-flight data, in order to help the authorities to develop new certification requirements, which will allow systems to be qualified to this threat. In that perspective, Bombardier has launched a cosmic radiations measurement campaign, using a plastic scintillator, as part of the CRIAQ/CARIC CIMES project. This paper compares two models, to predict in real time the number of light pulses released by the scintillator. These models are: ARIMAX and neural networks. The prediction models aim to identify the cosmic rays incidence and spectrum, as a function of flight coordinates and time of year. The analyzed results showed that model is acceptable when compared to measurements, which lead to a coefficient of determination of more than 90%.

Key words: cosmic radiations, aircraft, light pulse, prediction