Current and Future Scenarios of Water Availability and Demand in an Aquifer: Case Study of Libres-Oriental, Puebla, Mexico Aquifer

Villarreal-Manzo Luis Alberto

Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Puebla, Mexico

Abstract: This study aimed to perform a general balance between the availability and the demand of the Libres-Oriental aquifer, which allowed the construction of current and future scenarios and the temporary projection of their availability or potential deficiency. All the consumptive uses of the water were considered, emphasizing the agricultural use, which occupies around 80% of the total volume concessioned in a year. Water needs and irrigation requirements of the established crop pattern (cyclic and perennial) were estimated using the FAO-56 method modified by Penman-Monteith. The results obtained regarding the availability and demand of groundwater, according to a projected scenario, for the period 2015-2070, show an availability of around 18.49% for 2015, gradually decreasing this in the following years until reaching at 5.58% availability around the 2030 year. Starting this year, a deficit period will begin first of 3.32% increasing this in subsequent years until reaching an underground water deficit of 12.86% for the 2070 year. Limitations of the study could lie in having taken as a basis only a year in agricultural statistics (2015), and in the realization of linear projections and by least squares in terms of population growth (2050-2070) based on data from the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatic (INEGI) (2010) and from the National Population Council (CONAPO) (2015-2030). Implications of the same suggest that urgent measures must be implemented tending to the sustainable use and above all to the conservation of the groundwater still available.

Key words: underground water, consumptive use, water deficit, conservation