Assessment of Pastoral Vulnerability on Socio-Economy of Local Communities Using Geospatial Analysis

4. Institute for Strategic Studies, Mongolia

Abstract: A grazing pasture in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is particularly vulnerable to climate variability. To prevent а harm of pasture degradation induced by climate change and human impact, the assessment of pastoral vulnerability and its impacts on socio-economy of local communities are urgently needed. This study identified the impacts of pastoral vulnerability to the socio-economy of local communities in Gobi-Altai province, western Mongolia. The research analyses used the remote sensing techniques and geostatistical analysis with observation data of temperature and precipitation from weather stations, satellite data of eMODIS and SPOT, and statistical data on socio-economic indicators from 1999 to 2017. The findings of the study show that climate related drought and human activity related pasture use are main driving factors for the pastoral vulnerability. Four soums (administrative unit) in the Gobi-Altai province were found to have the highest level of pastoral vulnerability, and the pastoral vulnerability coupled by dzud has a strong effect on miscarriage rate of breeding livestock especially in female goats, and livestock losses. This process is one of the main factors that directly affect the income of herders, which demonstrates the need for adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of livestock sector and to reduce risks for herders. Differences in life expectancy for men and women are high in this province, suggesting further detailed studies and policies are needed to address the working conditions of herders impacted by climate change and their potential social service needs. The flexibility of the local pastoral vulnerability assessment has allowed the application of geo-visualisations in place-based problem-solving and decision-making processes in a specific socio-political context of municipal and regional governments.