Modeling of Scenarios and Indicator of the Ecological Footprint for the Projection of the Production and Consumption of Beef in Brazil in 2040

Business Department, Paulista School of Politics, Economics and Business at Federal University of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: Brazil, through decades of investment in technology that has raised not only productivity but also the quality of Brazilian beef, is among the most important beef producing countries in the world, becoming competitive with its product exported to over 150 countries. Beef production is accompanied by an increase in the consumption of natural resources on the planet, which among its impacts can be mentioned an atmosphere that is heated by greenhouse gas emissions. With this, Brazilian agriculture faces a choice: on the one hand the need for continuous production of beef, and on the other, the need to conserve limited natural resources for future human generations. In view of this, the search for technological efficiency in the use of resources becomes a target, but still treated in a secondary way by the segment. To meet the need to identify the limit of the planet's natural resources different ecological indicators have been developed and one of them is the Ecological Footprint. With all these reasoning presented, we create the panorama that grounded this research: the prediction of a future for the production and consumption of Brazilian beef, identifying its impacts and possible alternatives to mitigate the environmental impacts. To elucidate this scenario, this research was composed of four distinct phases, which resulted in a prospective model, composed of four scenarios for 2040, which involve technology in different ways. In addition, this model contemplates the current levels of production, consumption and technology and prospects for technological advances, evolution in the levels of projection of demand, population and per capita GDP globally.