Dynamics of Land Use and Scenario Simulation in the
Alto Batalha Watershed, Brazil

Anderson Antonio da Conceição Sartori, Murilo Dias Postigo, Sidnei Fonseca Guerreiro, 

and Caroline Lourenço Manzato

Abstract: The study of the dynamics of land use and the prediction of a future scenario may help in decision-making in land-use management. The computational tools for Geoprocessing, called Geographic Information Systems (GIS), allow future land-use scenarios simulation based on past information plans. The objective of this paper was to model the land use of the Alto Batalha watershed in the years 1987, 2000, and 2015, and simulate a scenario for 2030. To this end, we used the Land Change Modeler (LCM), Markov chain and Cellular Automata. The primary results were the identification of the main changes of land use from the data of gains, losses, and persistence. Results concluded that the elaboration of a future scenario for the year 2030 made it possible to identify the reduction and expansion trends of land use classes based on the probability matrix and land-use map from 2015. The temporal analysis from 1987 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2015 has enabled a better understanding of the environmental pressures on natural areas that have led to the degradation of water resources in the Upper Battle watershed.