Agricultural Land Suitability Analysis of Metropolitan Peri-Urban Areas Now and into the Future — Case Study of City of Whittlesea, Melbourne, Australia

2. City of Whittlesea Council, Department of Economic Development, Australia 

Abstract: Pressures from urban development in metropolitan peri-urban areas has led to decline in agricultural activity. Methodologies that address the impacts of climate change on agriculture are better at creating adaptive capacity for local communities. Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) methodology has been used to investigate the bio-physical and climatic crop growth requirements by defining three main criteria: soil, landscape and climate. The analysis creates a spatial composite map that displays areas of various suitability ranked from 0 to 10. The timeframe includes baseline, and 2030, 2050, and 2070 based on higher emission scenario projections RCP8.5, and includes irrigated and non-irrigated models. This paper presents the versatility LSA maps of ten commodities: Phalaris, Perennial Ryegrass, Lucerne, Brassicas, Citrus, Plums, Cherry, Raspberry, Cut Flowers, and Blue Gum. The case study area was City of Whittlesea, a Council in Northern Metropolitan Melbourne. The results indicate that agricultural land is highly suitable and versatile. The purpose of the analysis is to inform decision-makers and create the opportunity to discuss future agricultural development initiatives, which account for climate change as an enabler of agricultural activity. In conjunction with this approach, overarching strategies that ensure climate change adaptation are equally important.