A Case Study to Demonstrate the Development of Climate Services to Tackle the Challenges of Climate Variability and Long-Term Changes

Nicolas Fournier, Justin Krijnen, Galina Guentchev, and Caroline Acton

UK Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom

Abstract: The integrated nature of the Oil and Gas sector across extraction, transportation and processing will pose significant challenges to how the sector will respond and mitigate against risks brought about by future climate. Any disruption to this interconnected system will affect both industry and society. For example, in the summer of 2005 Hurricane Katrina and a month later Hurricane Rita had wide reaching impacts on the US offshore Oil and Gas industry which resulted in an increase in global oil prices due to loss of production and refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Preparation for, and taking mitigating actions against changes in environmental hazards, is dependent upon identifying appropriate climate indicators and the associated critical operational thresholds of oil and gas assets. The paper illustrates the Climate Change Risk Screening Tool developed through collaboration with industry partners for the UK North Sea. The tool will enable, firstly, business relevant decisions that reduce the impacts of climate variability and long-term changes on the production of UK oil and gas assets. Secondly, through validation and case studies, the necessary trust in the climate data and tool will be built to allow to further extend the tool in the future to cover global locations that would enhance

further the economic and environmental benefits for both industry and society.

Key words: oil and gas, climate change, climate variability, marine, sea level