Multi-model Ensemble Climate Change Projection for Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan under Representative Concentration Pathways

Mohammad Hassan. Hassanyar1, and June-ichiroGiorgos Tsutsumi2

1. Graduate School of Engineering and Science, University of the Ryukyus, Japan

2. Department of Civil Engineering & Architecture, University of the Ryukyus, Japan

Abstract: In this study, the most important aim is to project the future temperature and precipitation of Kunduz River Basin in north-eastern part of Afghanistan. A Multi-GCMs ensemble approach climate modeling was applied for best representation of future projection. The SimCLIM climate model was applied for detailed projection. The future projection done under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in three periods 2030s (2021-2040), 2060s (2051-2070) and 2090s (2081-2100) with respect to baseline 1980-2010. The comprehensive ensembles GCMs outputs illustrated the future temperature increasing and precipitation showed downward trend. However, the future temperature indicated slightly rise at winter season and lower warming at spring season. Annual Tmax warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projected 1.65°C and 4.10°C by 2090 respectively. However, annual Tmin increase under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 rates 1.50°C and 3.71°C respectively by end of century from the baseline. On the other hand, the annual future precipitation pictured decreasing. However, the seasonal variation of precipitation illustrated significant decrease in summer, under RCP8.5 pathway the decline of precipitation represented 10.68 percent in 2090s. In contrary, future precipitation in winter showed increasing, under high radiative pathway RCP8.5 increase of precipitation projected 3.72 percent in 2090s from the baseline. Therefore, a precaution measures must be undertaken due to possible negative risks in any sectorial planning and development options.

Key words: climate change, GCMs, RCP, temperature, precipitation, Kunduz River Basin