Spatial Analysis and Mapping Marginality Hotspots: A Vulnerability Factor of Rural Communities to Environmental Change

Daniel Lopez Lopez

Centro de Investigación en Geografía y Geomatica, México

Abstract: Marginality is an inter and transdisciplinary research concept, that is very useful where multiple causal linkages and relationships need to be investigated and understood to extract meaningful insights for scientific research about complex process. In Mexico, spatial, societal and ecological marginality persist around the less developed regions and communities, either as a single factor or in its different combinations; nevertheless, of these three dimensions of marginality, the social marginality have receive attention only.

Given that marginality is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, thus, it is imperative and is the objective of this study assesses and mapping marginality in an integral way, including ecological, social-economic and spatial dimensions, what would help to decision managers to design politics and programs, what led to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience of communities and regions to environmental change impacts.

In this study spatial analysis and inference modelling were applied to analyze and mapping marginality at community and regional levels at Usumacinta watershed in Mexico; in this region most of people has a high to very high social marginality and depend on natural resources for their livelihood.

Although the study area is very homogeneous in terms of social marginality, other spatial patterns emerge when other dimensions of marginality, spatial and ecological, are considered. In terms of population affected the more critical area is located in the highland where the three dimensions of marginality overlap in a high grade. In the lowland area spite of the population affected is lesser; these communities are exposed to risk flooding, what is very high in this zone. The patterns of marginality visualized in maps can be a useful tool to help decision making to design politics and programs that led to the communities affected overcome the marginalization conditions.

Key words: marginality hotspots, mapping, spatial analysis, vulnerability, environmental change