Climate Warming and Long-Term Trends in Saskatchewan Hay Yield

Paul G. Jefferson

Western Beef Development Centre, P.O. Box 1150 Humboldt SK S0K 2A0, Canada

Abstract: Adaptation to climate warming is a key strategy for sustainable agriculture. Analysis of long-term trends in the provincial average hay yield in Saskatchewan from 1967 to 2011 has reported a decline since the 1970’s and changing agronomic and economic variables were only partially effective in explaining the trend. In this paper, I examined the relationship between Global temperature difference and hay yield in Saskatchewan. Collinearity was determined by regression and principal component analysis. The beef cow number, fertilizer price, hay hectares, CO2 concentration, and Global temperature difference are generally increasing with time in the dataset and exhibited collinearity with time. The residuals from the hay yield predicted from April, May and June (AMJ) precipitation were regressed on Global temperature difference. The significant (P < 0.001) relationship indicates that precipitation is becoming less effective (water use efficiency is declining) as global temperatures increase. Future hay crops must become better adapted to warming temperatures to reverse this trend.

Key words: climate change, precipitation use efficiency, adaptation, forage crops