Impact of Change in Food Consumption Pattern on Agricultural and Food Productions in China

Shuai Zhong
(Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, Japan)

Abstract: Base on a standard general equilibrium model for China Marco-economy, this study estimated the impact on agricultural product and food market caused by the changes in consumption patterns to more meat and less grain by household group, including rural and urban household, constrained by the fixable amount of total available water. The change in consumption patter for household group would achieve a higher level in the household’s welfare and not make water scarcity become more serious. These findings were against some existed studies stating that this change would exacerbate water scarcity. Previous studies in China supported our findings and mentioned that the water dependency of meat production is less than grain production because of pork, which would not employ much water into productive process, accounting about 75% of total consumption of meat products. In detail, when this change only occurred in rural household rather than in urban household, both rural and urban household would be benefited with more increment in welfare. Nevertheless, the decline in grain demand would suppress almost all of the agricultural and food production as well as their import and export with the only a few exceptions of livestock, meat and processing of forage.

Key words: food consumption; agriculture; food product; China; CGE model

JEL codes: D58, E27, Q11, Q25