Implementation of Scenario Prospecting Methods in Ecological Footprint Indicators for the Identification of an Environmental Balance in the Production and Global Consumption of Beef

Abstract: Among the impacts caused by the increase in demand for food production for a world population expected to reach 9 billion people during the 21st century, there is an increase in the demand for beef and consequently an increase in the consumption of natural resources of the planet , resulting in an atmosphere heated by greenhouse gas emissions. In view of this, the search for technological efficiency in the use of resources becomes a target still treated in a secondary way by the segment. Considering the current and future possibilities of global beef production and consumption, this research concentrated on identifying a sustainable global pattern of beef production and consumption by 2040 through an unprecedented methodology, composed of four distinct phases, which resulted in a prospective model, composed of four scenarios for 2040, which involve technology in different ways. In addition, this model contemplates the current levels of production, consumption and technology and prospects for technological advances, evolution in the levels of projection of demand, population and per capita GDP globally.

Key words: prospective scenarios; ecological footprint; beef