Determinants of Brazilian Exports by Levels of Technological Intensity: A Gravity Model Analysis Using the PPML Estimator

Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of Brazilian exports by levels of technological intensity in the period 2000-2015. Gravity models were estimated for total of the exports and for each type of exports by levels of technological intensity, using the PPML-estimator. The study indicates that there is a process of concentration of Brazilian exports in low technology and medium-low technology products, at the same period in which China's share of total Brazilian shipments abroad grew. Estimates of empirical gravity models have shown that the income and size of the consumer market of Brazil’s trading partners seem to have the greatest positive influence on the Brazilian exports. Indications of this study are that the Brazil should continue to diversify its trading partners to minimize the impacts of a possible reduction of the economic growth of large trading partners (such as China and the US) on its exports and increase its exports of products with greater technological intensity. The results also highlight the need for Brazil to make greater efforts to increase its competitiveness in the international market to reduce the negative impacts of transport costs on the final prices of products exported by the country.

Key words: Brazilian exports; technological intensity; gravity models; PPML-estimator