Lilies Setiartiti^1,2, Darsono², Lukman Hakim²

Abstract: Energy has a dual role, as a producer of foreign exchange through the export of energy commodities and as a driver of economic activity. Thus increasing economic growth requires energy demand will increase as well. Due to the limited energy resources so that energy use efficiency becomes very important. This research taking as a case study, was conducted to predict the future energy demand. In order to forecast energy demand in the regions in the next 20 years, this research firstly analyzes the current situation of energy consumption. Energy demand modeled by sector using intensity approach, that is calculate the amount of energy used per unit of activity. Applying LEAP model was built to analyze the future trends of energy demand, and energy structure from the base year 2011 to 2030 under different scenario composition that is Bussines As Usual (BAU), Moderate (MOD), and Optimistic (OPT) scenario. The results showed that transport sector is the largest energy users and the household sector is the second largest user. In terms of types of energy, the premium is the most dominant type of energy use, while electricity is the second largest energy types. Energy demand of Yogyakarta grew an average of 7.63% per year and the overall final energy demand are 9,848.17 thousand BOE in 2030. For both MOD and OPT scenarios, energy elasticity smaller than 1, it’s mean to reach 1% of economic growth just need growth of energy use less than 1%. This suggests that energy use is efficient. Yogyakarta achieves energy efficiency by the year 2024 and 2019 recpecttively for MOD and OPT scenario. Overall, the results of this study provide insights into Yogyakarta’s energy future and highlight possible steps for policy maker in this region to develop an energy efficiency policy.

Key words: Yogyakarta; energy eficiency; scenarios; LEAP