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Humanities
- ISSN: 2155-7993
- Journal of Modern Education Review
Frequency Analysis of Aftershock Using Possion Distribution: A Case Study of Aftershock in Nabire, Papua in 2014 in Every 6-Hour Interval
Yansen Alberth Reba1, Felix Reba2
(1. Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) and Universitas, Negeri Yogyakarta, Indonesia;2. FMIPA Department Mathematics, Cendrawasih University, Indonesia)
Abstract: There have been many researchers using Poisson Distribution to analyze the parameters of earthquake magnitudes data. The results of parameter estimation of the magnitudes are then illustrated in somecurves to be analyzed. In this article, there will be a discussion in analyzing the data of earthquake frequencyusing Poisson Distribution by estimating the parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method.Then, the parameters are used to determine the magnitudes and the energy of the earthquake. The case study inthis research used the data of aftershock frequency in Nabire District in Papua in 2004 for every 6-hour interval.After conducting the compliance test using Chi Square test, it obtained that the data followed the pattern of Poisson Distribution. It is clearly seen that the period of 03.00 a.m.–09.00 a.m. has the biggest frequency of earthquake compared with other hours in which the parameter λ = 42.97, mean = 42.97, magnitude (M) = 6.03richter scale, energy (E) = 75.55. For the description: this earthquake was felt by the people driving a car, and the buildings with bad constructions would be collapsed as well as for their chimneys. Thus, this research is expectedto be able to reduce the number of victims as well as to minimize the loss caused by the earthquake.
Key words: possion distribution, MLE, Newton Raphson, Chi Square Test, magnitude, energy, MarcelliIntensity.
