Economics
- ISSN: 2155-7950
- Journal of Business and Economics
Shackle in Time — Time in Shackle on Challenging
the Art of Making Predictions
Mogens Ove Madsen
(Department of Business and Management, Aalborg University, Denmark)
Abstract: GLS Shackle got much and the crucial inspiration from John Maynard Keynes. But that’s not all. He took a number of further consequences of Keynes’ thoughts. This implies for example ideal claims to economists — having to deal with both mechanical time and expectational time. In consequence the idea in this paper is to introduce Keynesian Kaleidics as an illustration of how complicated it is to analyze economic contexts. Finally it is discussed how the potential opportunities is to make alternatives to deterministic predictions on the basis of Shackles approach to economic analysis and especially the idea of scenario writing.
Key words: time; prediction; unkowledge; Keynesian kaleidics; scenario writing; moment-in-being;
expectational time
JEL codes: B31, B41, D80