Fang Po Huang1, Berlin Wu2

(1. National ChiNan University, Taiwan; 2. National Chengchi University, Taiwan)

 

 

Abstract: In recent years, the innovation and improvement of forecasting techniques have caught more attention, and also provide indispensable information in decision-making process. Since student’s achievement time series may be influenced by many factors, it is difficult to find an appropriate linear regression model to get a better forecasting result for students’ studying achievement. In this paper, we use ARIMA model and transfer function model in analyzing and forecasting student’s achievement. In the empirical study, we demonstrate a novel approach to forecast the student’s achievement through transfer model. The mean absolute forecasting accuracy method is defined and used in evaluating the performance forecasting. The comparison with moving average model is also illustrated.

 

 

Key words: transfer function model; forecasting; students’ studying achievement

 

JEL codes: I21